Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 1.598955 1.661823 1.727167 1.800416 1.880554 1.965935 2.064279
2025-12-07 1.495620 1.575329 1.660622 1.759351 1.871363 1.995599 2.145417
2025-12-14 1.434548 1.526177 1.626412 1.745381 1.884371 2.043803 2.243932
2025-12-21 1.382219 1.481965 1.592987 1.727438 1.888359 2.078303 2.325323
2025-12-28 1.356402 1.465431 1.588891 1.741488 1.928765 2.156675 2.464922
2026-01-04 1.339030 1.457017 1.592803 1.763963 1.979276 2.249553 2.630540
2026-01-11 1.309511 1.432532 1.575859 1.759268 1.994510 2.297272 2.739072
2026-01-18 1.286511 1.414528 1.565431 1.761380 2.017564 2.355716 2.867333
2026-01-25 1.250736 1.379654 1.532764 1.733478 1.999225 2.356013 2.909518
2026-02-01 1.226746 1.358170 1.515599 1.724243 2.004587 2.388635 3.002886
2026-02-08 1.203203 1.336367 1.497080 1.712140 2.004936 2.413474 3.085824
2026-02-15 1.181970 1.316696 1.480435 1.701549 2.006397 2.439403 3.172615
2026-02-22 1.168705 1.306985 1.476591 1.708411 2.033461 2.506581 3.340660
2026-03-01 1.139074 1.275916 1.444407 1.675878 2.002793 2.483706 3.346917
2026-03-08 1.120913 1.258812 1.429646 1.666265 2.004375 2.510479 3.446702
2026-03-15 1.101827 1.240023 1.412101 1.652080 1.998396 2.524583 3.524171
2026-03-22 1.095535 1.237286 1.415284 1.666372 2.034818 2.609201 3.753206
2026-03-29 1.092495 1.238534 1.423597 1.687937 2.083100 2.717465 4.054560
2026-04-05 1.079853 1.227011 1.414528 1.684439 2.092618 2.760220 4.221323
2026-04-12 1.070104 1.218982 1.409848 1.686920 2.111375 2.820490 4.443021
2026-04-19 1.050423 1.197572 1.386607 1.661813 2.085274 2.797949 4.454648
2026-04-26 1.037795 1.185168 1.375270 1.653633 2.085791 2.824108 4.598138
2026-05-03 1.024675 1.171859 1.362379 1.642737 2.081353 2.840586 4.719889